The Google Android Phone's Big Premiere

In the most anticipated mobile-phone launch since the release of Apple's iPhone, the T-Mobile G1 is due to be unveiled Sept. 23.

Like the iPhone, unveiled in June 2007, the G1 is the brainchild of one of tech's most innovative companies; it's the first phone boasting the Android software created by a Google (GOOG)-led consortium. Like Apple's music-playing handset, the G1 features a full Web browser and connects to the Internet with Wi-Fi technology. G1 similarly boasts a large touchscreen and lets users download games and tools from an online bazaar akin to the Apple App Store.

That's about where the similarities end. The G1 is to follow a different path from the Apple (AAPL) iPhone in some crucial ways, notably volume growth. G1 is expected to do well, though it may not replicate the iPhone's early successes.

Fewer T-Mobile Subscribers

Analysts predict that manufacturer HTC will sell 200,000 to 400,000 units this year, assuming the device becomes available in late October or early November and sells for $199 with a two-year contract. At the high end of that estimate, the first Android device would gain almost 4% of the U.S. smartphone market in the fourth quarter, expected by wireless researcher Strategy Analytics to total 10.5 million. If the handset makes it onto shelves sooner, say at the beginning of October, the number is likely be considerably higher, says Chris Ambrosio, an executive director of wireless research at Strategy Analytics. Tina Teng, an analyst at research firm iSuppli, believes Android-based devices will sell 2 million to 3 million units globally in 2009.

Still, the original iPhone sold 1 million units in its first 1½ months on the market—and that was during what is usually a slow sales season, compared with end-of-year holidays. Apple expects to sell 10 million units of the next-generation device, the iPhone 3G, this year.

Sales expectations are lower for Android partly because G1 will be carried by T-Mobile USA, which has 30 million subscribers, compared with Apple's iPhone partner, AT&T (T), which has more than 70 million.

Another strike against Android is that T-Mobile's high-speed wireless network isn't as extensive as AT&T's. "Consumers still choose the carrier first," says Ross Rubin, an analyst at consumer electronics research firm NPD Group. "For early adopters, they'd need to contend with T-Mobile's embryonic 3G network for at least a few months," Rubin says. What's more, G1 buyers will likely have to buy an additional calling plan to use G1's built-in Wi-Fi more extensively; iPhone users can freely use their device's Wi-Fi capability.

Some analysts who have seen versions of G1 also say it's not quite as stylish as the comparable Apple device. "It does not feel as luxurious as the iPhone," says Moe Tanabian, senior principal at IBB Consulting who has seen a late prototype of the device and says it's a cross between the iPhone and a Sidekick, an earlier T-Mobile phone that also boasts Web access and was a favorite of hip cell-phone users. Andy Rubin, who heads Google's Android effort, helped develop the Sidekick.